Why Has Beef Production Gone Up but the Number of Cattle Has Decreased
Stronger-than-normal seasonal demand for beef is driving fed cattle prices upward, according to a Texas A&Chiliad AgriLife Extension Service expert.
Seasonal beef need historically rises in the leap, especially leading up to grilling season, which kicks off Memorial Day, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist, Bryan-Higher Station. But this year, demand is college as Americans and the economy emerge from a yr-long pandemic.
Anderson said the run-upward in fed cattle prices and in the wholesale market place reflects the overall economic mood in the nation and globally. Economic momentum is increasing as Americans continue to gain confidence that the COVID-nineteen pandemic is largely in the rear view.
Co-ordinate to the Centers for Disease Command and Prevention tracker, almost 36.5% of Americans take received at least one vaccination dose, while 22% were fully vaccinated. As those percentages increment, Anderson said consumer need is probable to shift toward higher value beef cuts and continue to build in a restaurant sector devastated by the pandemic.
Anderson said the hotel and restaurant markets have a long road to recovery merely improvements in the travel sector should exist encouraging.
"At that place'south a lot of pent-upward demand," Anderson said. "There's more momentum toward opening up and people desire to get out or take get-togethers."
Beefiness, cattle prices and need
Anderson said fed cattle prices in the U.Southward. Southern Plains, which includes Texas, jumped to $121 per hundredweight compared to $114 per hundredweight but four weeks ago. They savage as low as $109 per hundredweight at the end of January.
Seasonal toll increases this fourth dimension of year commonly are around $half-dozen per hundredweight on a v-twelvemonth average, but surging demand has created a greater-than-seasonal increase and could drive prices college, he said.
Selection beef cutout was at $272 per hundredweight on April nine, up $xx per hundredweight from the week prior, Anderson said. Select beef besides rallied to $264 per hundredweight, or correct at the v-yr boilerplate.
It is noteworthy, he said, that beefiness prices were potent before the pandemic and that retail demand for beef in 2020 was the all-time in 20 years. The retail demand reflects prices and purchases at grocery stores and show that despite the pandemic's effect on restaurants, Americans still consumed beef.
Anderson expects beefiness will continue to exist in need, and that the American appetite for beef may shift from lower-value cuts like hamburger and sirloins to rib-middle steaks and filets, especially as grilling season nears.
"Beefiness is more expensive than pork or chicken, and demand for sure beef cuts is typically a pretty practiced indicator for how the economy is performing," he said. "Increased demand and prices relate to how much money are in people's pockets."
Price rally for producers
Anderson said it's difficult to compare the cattle and beef markets to this fourth dimension last year when the pandemic was causing dubiety and logistical bottlenecks due to processing plant and restaurant closures, every bit well as panic buying at grocery stores.
Feed prices are upward significantly due to price rallies on about grains, including corn. Anderson said high feed prices typically translate into lower calf prices in the curt term, only prices for calves continue to climb, though their trajectory would be steeper if grain prices were normal.
But despite rallying prices, Anderson expects the Texas and U.S. cattle herd to continue contraction.
"Prices are improving, but I remember we will continue to come across producers cut into their cow herds based on high feed prices and drought," he said. "There is typically less beefiness production on higher feed prices, historically, and drier-than-normal weather condition outlooks will exist a factor going forrard."
Anderson said cattle weights at feedlots typically decline between January and June, merely weights had been higher this yr until Winter Storm Uri acquired notable weight losses. The week before the wintertime storm, Anderson said fed cattle average weights were 919 pounds. Average weights fell to 899 pounds after the stressful calendar week where cattle'south dietary intake burned as energy to assist them stay warm.
In the first calendar week of Apr boilerplate weights were still 899 pounds.
"Nosotros have to feed them longer for them to proceeds weight, and the higher feed prices incentivizes feedlots to sell them quicker," he said. "The good thing is we are producing a lot of beef and selling it."
Trade information indicates some other practiced trend for producers, Anderson said. Beefiness exports are down, but imports are down more than.
"Competitor nations' prices are high, and the weaker dollar has helped exports," he said. "The consign volumes exceeded imports by fifty meg pounds, and divided by 330 million people, that's basically a little more than one Happy Meal. There'south a lot of good, optimistic things to talk about."
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the post-obit summaries:
Key
Weather were dry and windy. Soil moisture conditions continued to deteriorate, and year-to-date rainfall was well beneath normal. New crops were showing moisture stress, including some corn already exhibiting leaf rolling. Leaf and stripe rust and corn aphids were nowadays on wintertime wheat, with the rust starting time to testify on the flag leaf of the more susceptible wheat varieties. Cotton wool planting halted due to very limited soil moisture, but producers connected to prepare fields. Herbicide and fertilization applications were complete. Cattle remained in decent body condition with pasture conditions improving. Stock tank levels were decreasing, and runoff h2o was needed to refill tanks. Pastures were in generally fair condition, and tardily-wintertime planted forages were being grazed down.
ROLLING PLAINS
Conditions remained dry but recent forecasts showed a run a risk of rain. Winter wheat and rangelands could use a good rain as soil moisture levels connected to reject. Pastures and rangeland were in fair condition as grasses continued to sally. Livestock were in fair condition, but supplemental feeding continued. Farmers were in full swing preparing fields for the upcoming crop year.
COASTAL BEND
Conditions were dry out and windy, and temperatures were starting to warm. Drought conditions were condign critical after some other week without rain. Plantings continued in dusty conditions, with cotton and rice planting nearing completion. Cotton fiber was emerging at adequate rates. Crops will need moisture soon to increase yield potential. In some drier areas, ingather stands were thinner than desired, merely expert enough to avoid replanting. Wheat began heading. Rangelands and pastures were green, but growth slowed and were beginning to show signs of stress. Hay pastures were being fertilized, and ryegrass in a few hay fields was cutting. Livestock were in good status and bringing stable to higher prices. Many spring calves were on the ground and looked good.
EAST
Conditions beyond the district were more often than not dry out. A few areas received some scattered showers, but more pelting was needed to get hayfields and pastures growing. Pasture and rangeland weather were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil weather were adequate. Cattle markets were steady with aggressive buyers on all cattle classes. Livestock were in fair to good status with some supplemental feeding taking place. Fly populations increased dramatically as temperatures warmed. Feral hogs acquired bug for many producers by dissentious hay meadows and pastures.
Southward PLAINS
Farmers across the district were busy fertilizing fields in training for planting flavor. Wheat was heading out, only development stopped due to the lack of wet with most fields in poor to fair condition. Rain was in the forecast, and producers may take a suspension from pre-watering croplands. Cattle were in good condition.
PANHANDLE
Northeastern parts of the district reported adequate topsoil and subsoil moisture. Northwestern, primal and southern parts of the commune reported short to very short soil moisture levels. Pasture and rangeland atmospheric condition were very poor to good. Winter wheat conditions were off-white to practiced, and wheat connected to develop with warmer temperatures. Producers were starting to run pivots on their wheat in hopes of salvaging the crop. Forecasts called for rainfall, and atmospheric precipitation should help an already promising wheat ingather. In drier areas, producers were starting to run pivots on their wheat in hopes of salvaging the crop. Corn, cotton wool and grain sorghum preplant activities, including cultivation and spraying, were in total swing. Very dry and windy weather left production fields in some areas in rough condition. Cattle were existence moved off wheat fields that were beingness grown for grain and onto less lush pasture.
NORTH
Topsoil moisture throughout the commune was adequate to short. Topsoil moisture began to dry out out beyond the counties. Daytime temperatures were in the 70s about of the calendar week. Sporadic rain was forecasted in the coming week. Corn was emerging and could use some pelting. Wheat looked skilful and appeared to exist inbound the boot stage. Livestock and spring-born calves were in great condition. Horn flies were starting to become a problem on cows already.
FAR WEST
Temperatures reached highs in the lower 90s with night temperatures in the low- to mid-40s. Drought weather continued with windy conditions and no rain reported. Small fires were reported throughout the district. Many producers were in fields trying to keep the sand from blowing. Some pecan trees started to bud and foliage out. Beef cattle were yet in overall good condition. Producers were beginning to cut winter beardless wheat for hay. Rangeland weather condition were poor. Livestock continued to receive supplemental feed. Pre-irrigation connected for cotton fiber in the Rio Grande Valley, and cultivation prior to planting was in process on many farms that received water early. Pecan orchards were slowly beingness watered as well. The El Paso Canton H2o Improvement District No. i was releasing effluent water to some areas in the Lower Valley, but a majority of farms had not received water. El Paso Canton will non receive project river water until late May or early June. Many farmers were relying on wells, which tin crusade long-term problems due to high salinity levels. This growing season was expected to exist very difficult for El Paso County farmers due to drought.
WEST Fundamental
Mornings were absurd and days were warm with windy weather condition. All areas needed rainfall. Stock tank water levels were dropping. Forages were slow growing. Pecan bud break was in total swing. Producers increased field training for summer fodder planting. Some fields were planted, and others were fertilized. Bound livestock piece of work increased, and supplemental feeding continued due to drought.
SOUTHEAST
Conditions continued to dry out. Trace amounts of rainfall were reported in some areas, and Grimes County reported practiced rainfall. Boosted moisture was needed, and irrigation was being provided to most vegetable crops. Rain was in the forecast for some areas. Cherry-red clover bloom was consummate for almost locations and white clovers started blooming. Pasture weather condition were deteriorating. Rangeland and pasture ratings were excellent to very poor with fair ratings beingness the most common. Soil moisture levels were very brusque to acceptable to very short.
SOUTHWEST
Dry and warm atmospheric condition continued across the district with no rainfall reported. Pastures connected to pass up with increased temperatures and a lack of moisture. Wildfire risk was a concern. Corn, sorghum and cotton fiber were planted. Kinney Canton reported crops continued to exist heavily irrigated. Sutton Canton reported that tent caterpillars arrived with lighter infestations than final year. Caldwell Canton reported steady cattle markets, and sheep and caprine animal markets were high. Spring shearing of sheep and Angora goats continued. Livestock were in fair condition and almost were receiving supplemental feed.
Due south
Soil wet levels were very short to short. Warm conditions with temperatures into the 90s and no rainfall were reported. Triple-digit temperatures were in the forecast. Wheat fields were under irrigation, and some fields were expected to exist cut for hay soon. Some rust was reported, and fungicide applications were being made. Corn, sorghum and cotton wool fields continued to develop under irrigation. Cotton planting was complete in a few areas and picking up across most of the district. Pasture and rangeland conditions were mostly poor and continued to decline. Supplemental feeding continued. Stock tanks were property. Feed and hay prices increased due to demand. Beef cattle producers connected to cull herds due to minimal forage availability. A higher number of early weaned calves were reported, and cattle body weather were declining. Cattle prices were steady. Summer grasses were emerging, and some producers had cut hay, though yields were lower than usual. Hay producers followed cuttings with fertilizer and irrigation. Crop growth stages were behind schedule, and stands were thinner than usual. Some plantings were on hold due to lack of moisture. Early planted crops were showing moisture stress. Onions and sugarcane were being harvested, and sesame was being planted. Some citrus copse were showing signs of life following the winter storm.
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Source: https://agrilifetoday.tamu.edu/2021/04/13/beef-cattle-prices-on-the-rise/
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